121Contact

Terror and Intelligence: Did Obama miss the big picture?

May 24, 2013 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

       "Intelligence (noun). The ability to learn or understand or to deal with new or trying situations." [1]

    America is losing the “War on Terror.” In the aftermath of 9/11 we suffered from panicked, instinctive reactions that have driven errors in preparation, immediate response, long and short term planning, This led to policy decisions that make us more, not less, vulnerable to terrorist attacks. The distorted thinking and over-reactive responses also negatively impacted our justice system and collective sense of values.

The errors. Perhaps the most important strategic error was our declaring a “War on Terror,” with its implication of the possibility of a final victory. The war rhetoric guides our responses to violent actions that have unexpected results exactly because we are dealing with terrorist mindsets and not with classical, international conflicts.

    The Drone war generates more terrorists than it kills because of the recruiting power of the perceived atrocities that the U.S. commits with its targeted killings and consequent deaths of innocent civilians. The insertion of American troops into Arab lands has become a powerful part of al Qaeda’s global narrative of terrorism. They refer these ‘occupations’ often in Inspire Magazine and other media, to justify martyrdom operations.[2] The creation of Guantanamo Prison, the use of extraordinary rendition, torture and the creation of numerous ‘black sites’ are also used as recruitment inducements.

    The Presidency has taken extraordinary powers unto itself making the Office of President judge, jury, and final word on assassinations of both citizens and non-citizens alike. There has been a strong backlash among local populations that serves to engender widespread and strong resentment against the U.S. This serves to radicalize people already suspicious of American motives. The radicalized are those most prone to take the next step: becoming radicalized to violence. (Moghaddam) Our policies are aiding the difficult emotional step of accepting, as honorable, the indiscriminate killing in the name of a ‘higher’ cause, i.e., becoming a terrorist.

    At home we have taken drastic, and sometimes ludicrous, measures to ‘ensure safety.’ The Patriot Act has taken constitutional rights away from Americans. The Homeland Security airport procedures and random searches in subway stations have become expensive exercises that serve mainly to terrorize people who are going about their daily business. Media, Government, and Law Enforcement ‘experts’ have consistently framed the dangers as imminent when they are of relatively low risk. Little of their pronouncements are backed by science. Our overall response to 9/11 was and continues to be one of exaggeration and narrow-mindedness.

Why have we made Errors in Judgment? The sciences that study thought processes, especially those manifest under stress, are revealing distortions in logic that act beneath our usual awareness. These distortions cause errors in thinking and lead to inevitable errors in judgment. This logical chain is demonstrable in the laboratory and is predictable, mainly within the science of cognitive and social-cognitive studies. Psychological influences on our individual and group responses to fear and outside threats are measurable and help to explain our individual, national, and government reactions to 9/11.

    Cognitive science teaches us that negativity bias causes us to pay attention to and give more weight to our fears of attack than is warranted by facts. It’s only natural, as is the effect of loss aversion. This fear of losing our lives moves the government and the population at large to accept huge costs to avoid what might be small chances of attacks. Threats generate changes in thought that are more conservative and more accepting of immediate violent solutions. (Cohen) International war becomes an acceptable, even welcome, response. Under stress we tend to replace logical thinking with black and white views, rigidity, and closed-mind perception. (Hudson)

    These mechanisms facilitate the manipulation of popular perceptions. What the ‘experts’ say tends to be taken, by most people, at face value with little critical thought. 

Primary Misunderstandings. Basic flaws in understanding the nature of terrorist organizations and their mindset lead to false conclusions about the best way to thwart their efforts. This interferes with our critical ability to “Pay attention to the impact of US action/policy on Terrorism’s thinking, beliefs, and goals.”[3] One example was the persistence of “Black Sites”, at one time involving over 50 countries, which yielded little actionable data but functioned as a constant source of propaganda for terrorists. In each of those countries the local Islamists have ‘proof’ that the local government is a partner to the America’s anti-Muslim crusade.

    Targeted killing has likewise been more advantageous to al Qaeda than to the “War on Terror.” The ‘top level terrorist operatives’ that are assassinated are quickly replaced and the effect on the terrorist groups is generally minimal and short-lived. The longer-term effects of our quick-response violence against terrorists is an area worthy of more study.

    Bakker and Veldhuis delineate a number of misperceptions that skew decision making about strategy, tactics, and policy:

• Western fear is not commensurate with the numbers of actual incidents.
• Fear leads to overreaction which can lead to extreme policy decisions which can generate the backlash of increased recruitment power to terrorists.
  • Threat assessments become possibility-based, rather than statistically arrived at, vastly inflating the danger.
• Primarily due to the fact that “perceived collective fear of terrorism can contribute to elevating real fear of terrorism, irrespective of whether the perception of shared fear is accurate or not,”  we find ourselves in panic mode when a thoughtful, measured response would be more appropriate. (Bakker, Veldhuis)

    Simple finance also plays a role in exaggerating threats. The media know that sensationalism sells. They cash in whenever they get the opportunity to heighten our fears with graphic depictions of the latest terrorist attack. We also should not ignore the effect of corporate influence on Congressional approval of vast sums allocated to questionably effective anti-terrorist initiatives, equipment, and munitions.

Managing Perceptions as Part of Counterterrorism. The government, academia, science, and the media all have important roles in correcting the perceptions of terrorism and its impact, both real (historically) and potential for two main reasons. Distorted reasoning leads to:

     1) The adoption of ineffective counterterrorism measures, and

     2) An enormous waste of money.

    If we exaggerate threats and perceive them as imminent when they are not, then we risk suffering the stress-amplified impairment of confirmation bias (assuming our worst fears are reality) which can lead us into restrictive modes of thought just when we need maximum flexibility and openness. Terrorists have proven to be highly adaptable, changing effectively as we try to limit their actions. We, on the other hand, have proven to be rigid in our thought and slow to adapt to rapidly changing tactics.

    Those in leadership positions must learn to recognize when psychological pressures compromise intelligent thought. The general populace must also learn to realistically assess the world around them before they make decisions as to personal safety and who to vote for.

    Science has shown us these mechanisms that interfere with rational decision making. We now have to disseminate that knowledge so that we can all be better at resisting the terrorist’s aim of inducing panic and irrational thought.

    In the aftermath of a terrorist action it is important to manage fear. This requires preparation beforehand as well as coordinated activity as part of the response. Our natural tendency assume the worst (negativity bias), fundamental attribution error (painting terrorists as madmen), and media’s propensity for sensationalism all have to be mitigated to ensure intelligent decision making on the part of government, and intelligent response on the part of the public. Distortions that occur right after an attack tend to persist and further cloud perceptions and, therefore, policy making. Scientific risk assessment, clear information about preparedness, realistic assessment of the perpetrators, and robust communications networks can help ease the emotional effects of terrorism. (Breckenridge and Zimbardo)

Obstacles to Progress. There are many obstacles to thinking effectively about terrorism. Three are particularly harmful. The first because it irrationally affects who we elect as decision makers; the second and third because they have a pervasive effect on the population as a whole.  

1) The power of self-interest: There is a tension between seeking the greater good and striving for our own well-being. Official seeking office may pander to fear by increasing the public’s anxiety,

2) Media may frame events in the most inflammatory way to increase circulation, and

3) The apathy of the populace may work to maintain the status quo. People have the power to alter the direction of political, educational, and communications discourse, but only if they are willing to work toward those ends.

    The great power amassed at the head of political, media, and corporate entities presents a formidable wall that leads to frustration on the part of those seeking change, which leads to apathy in the face of hopelessness. These elements define a self-feeding, societally self-destructive set of mechanisms. But there is a way out.

Keys to success. The critical path to a future in which we can apply more intelligent handling of the terrorist threat lies within educational sphere. Institutions of learning have access to the thought processes of young people. While they are learning to apply intelligence to solving problems we can enlighten them as to the real-world factors that can influence the clarity of their thinking. Awareness of cognitive mechanisms that can interfere with logical thought should be part of the teaching curriculum at all levels, from pre-school through advanced studies. In this way we will arm our citizens with the tools required for an intelligent approach to the existence of terrorism in our world.

    We also have to work to mitigate the current impairments to judgment by exposing the general public to the distortions that are guiding today’s policy decisions. This calls for more government transparency and requires cooperation of the media. Both are extremely difficult goals. Although there is some movement in this direction, more would be helpful. 

    President Obama’s May 24, 2013 speech contained acknowledgement of some of these problems and mostly vague promises to take steps in the right direction. Even if he can convince Congress to implement his proposals it will not be enough.

    America can move to more efficacious actions, but only if we seek an unbiased truth. We must admit our errors, do the necessary research, and implement strategies and tactics based upon sound science.

Bibliography 

"About Those Black Sites." Editorial. New York Times. New York Times, 18

     Feb. 2013.

Bakker, E. and Veldhuis, T. "A Fear Management Approach to Counterterrorism."

Discussion Paper, International Centre for Counterterrorism, The Hague (February

    2012).

Beck, A.T. (2002). Prisoners of hate. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 40, 209-216

Breckenridge, H.N., & Zimbardo, P.G (2007). The strategy of terrorism and the

    psychology of mass-mediated fear In B. Bongar, et.al., (eds.) Psychology of

    Terrorism (pp. 116-133). New York: Oxford University Press

Cohen, S. (2011). Psychological theories of terrorism and political violence; a non-

      linear evolution. To appear in: Encyclopedia of the History of psychological

      theories. New York, Springer

Friedman, Benjamin H. Managing Fear: The Politics of Homeland Security, Political

     Science Quarterly, Volume 126, Number 1, Spring 2011, pp.77-106.

Hudson, R.A. (1999). The sociology and psychology of terrorism: Who becomes a

    terrorist and why? Washington, D.C. Federal Research Division, Library of

    Congress.

Moghaddam, F. M. (2007). The staircase to terrorism: IN: Bongar, B., Brown, LM,

    Beurler, Le, Breckenridge, JN, and Zimbardo, PG (eds.) Psychology of Terrorism,

    pp.69-80. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

 

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[1] http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/intelligence

[2] http://info.publicintelligence.net/OSC-AlQaedaMasterNarratives.pdf           

 [3] A.T. Beck (2002), Prisoners of hate. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 40, 209-216

How Does Inspire Inspire? Boston and virtual radicalization to violence.

 May 20, 2013, by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

The deadly bombings at the annual Boston Marathon, on April 15, 2013, brought al-Qaeda’s Inspire magazine to prominence. The magazine was previously little-known outside of jihadist, academic, and security circles. It is now being pointed to by the media as an important influence in the lives of the 2 Boston bombers, and Lone Wolf terrorists in general, who become, in part, ‘radicalized’ by internet material such as Inspire.

Examining the psychological mechanisms embedded within Inspire’s language and images reveals responses in aid of moving someone to be radicalized to violence. Looking through the lenses of various psychological disciplines shows Inspire to be a powerful, even though virtual, social learning device.   

Definitions:

There is a distinction, often overlooked by government and media, between ‘radicalized’ and ‘radicalized to violence (RV).’ The former carries the Merriam-Webster meaning ‘advocating extreme measures to retain or restore a political state of affairs.’ The latter, RV, means (after Borem ‘RVE’) ‘radicalization to the point of personally accepting indiscriminate & publicized killing for socially impactful aims.’ Millions hold radical thoughts, a miniscule percentage are violent.

This is a look at the content, without presuming to know the intent of Inspire’s publishers,  as if it was carefully crafted to influence its readers by using elements of cognitive science in the aid of persuasion. References to specific issues of Inspire are cited in-line as (I issue#, p. page#).

‘Reader’ with a capital R refers to a radicalized person on the path to becoming a terrorist.

We define Lone Wolf Terrorism as acts of terrorism committed by individuals who:

• operate individually, or in very small groups,
• do not belong to an organized terrorist group or network,
• act without the direct influence of a leader or hierarchy, and
• whose tactics and methods are conceived (and/or chosen) and directed by the individual(s) without any direct outside command or direction.

The first issue of Inspire appeared on the internet in the summer of 2010 and is thought to be the product of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The Arabic word translated as ‘inspire’ carries the connotation of “an inspiration that saves a person (from perishing) and guides them towards what is good for them.” (I1, p.1) The quote serves as an initial priming of the Reader with thoughts of being saved and receiving the guidance they are seeking.  

Major contributors to the magazine: Anwar al-Awlaki (thought to be the inspiration), Samir Khan (possible originator and co-editor), Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abu Mus’ab al-Suri (a strong advocate of ‘small-scale’ independent acts of terror), and many other people presented by Inspire’s editors as authorities and/or religious leaders. The most recent issue, #10, was published in March of 2013. A companion document, “The Lone Mujahid Pocketbook,” is a compilation of tips, techniques, instructions, and formulae taken from previous issues.

A stated purpose of Inspire is to make “the Muslim a mujahid in Allah’s path” invoking the popular definition of ‘mujahid’ as ‘one who takes up arms in defense of Islam.’ By explicit example, pragmatic justification, and direct exhortation the magazine seeks to inspire Lone Wolf terrorism.

The target audience inferred both from the text and the image of the magazine is partially radicalized Western youth. While the text addresses more than just Americans, this analysis does focus on Inspire’s appeal to Westerners, and Americans in particular. Its stated target audience is repeated in many forms, such as: “Tips for Our Brothers in the United States of America," and “. . . we tell the Muslims in America and Europe: There is a better choice . . . individual work inside the West . . . to relieve you of the difficulty of traveling to us.” (I1 p.33)

Its actual target audience is narrower than it declares. By layout and design, by jargon and slang, and by technical appeal Inspire is evidently seeking to attract Americans in their teens and twenties. Its style fits well with modern magazine production and from cover to cover it is modern, appealing, and even hip.

Sitting passively on the internet, Inspire does not actively seek readers. The Reader is reaching out to Inspire. As Sageman points out, “More than 80 percent of plots . . . were concocted from the bottom up . . . Shahzad and Hassan . . . sought out the popular Internet preacher [Awlaki] because they were already radicalized to the point of wanting further guidance to act.” (Atran) If our capital ‘R’ Reader is already partially radicalized then Inspire can be an effective tool, replete with psychological mechanisms, capable of moving that person to violent radicalization. The Reader is actually seeking guidance from Inspire. These mechanisms are the subject of this paper.

Viewing Inspire Through Multiple Lenses

 Social Cognitive Theory (SCT). In the broadest sense, Inspire motivates by encouragement. In some respects it conforms to Bandura’s Social Cognitive Theory by interacting, virtually, with the Reader, and building behavioral capabilities (by delivering instruction in bomb making, weapons instruction, and tradecraft tips). Observational learning is provided by detailed accounts of previous terrorist attacks. Expectations are raised by relating the effects of individual terrorist acts to the completion of the global Caliphate, and lastly, it builds self-efficacy by repeated assurances that Lone Wolf terrorism can be accomplished by anyone, with minimal danger of being caught. “The bomb should be timed . . . guaranteeing a safe withdrawal.” (I9 p.35) An example is the article entitled ‘Make a bomb in the kitchen of your mom.’ (I1, p.34) The directions are detailed, and assurance is given that the methods are pre-tested.

Inspire says ‘Here’s what to do (attack the enemy)’. ‘Here’s why you should do it (for the sake of the Caliphate, by God’s will)’. And it tells the Reader, ‘You can do it. Just follow the easy instructions.’ It also provides a social milieu in which the Reader can act alone and yet not be lonely since he is part of the global jihad. Many others in the same ‘seeking’ situation are profiled within the issues to reinforce this view.

Inspire provides the structures through which the Reader can learn how to express social discontent and alienation through violence. (Maghan) SCT notes how the tensions of feeling ‘outside’ are relieved by membership in a community of like-minded people. “It is the situation and the personality that is determinant.”

One finds strong justifications by religious leaders as well as demonization of American leaders (and the general public for its support of the leaders). Both of these factors act as confirmation bias for Readers who are already partially radicalized. They support and confirm ideas that are already part of the Reader’s world view.

While many schemata are aroused in Inspire, the notion of the Lone Wolf deserves special attention. The actual term, ‘lone wolf’ was originated by two members of the US-based white supremacist movement, Alex Curtis and Tom Metzger in the early 1990’s. (TRAC) The Lone Wolf has a long heroic history in American folklore; from Davy Crocket to the Lone Ranger to more modern myths like Rambo. Movies and TV often depict the vigilante taking the law into his own hands because there is no other way to obtain justice. ‘Famous’ Lone Wolves include TV’s Jack Bauer of 24, Max Rockatansky, in Mad Max, William Wallace in Braveheart, and Brian Mills in Taken. It is, perhaps, unfortunate that the Lone Wolf appellation has been given to unalloyed terrorists. It immediately yields images of rugged individuality, righteous correctness, bravery, and strength. It implies heroism as opposed to indiscriminate murderer. Perhaps ‘singleton killers’ might be more appropriate.

Invoking the image of David and Goliath, and its surrounding schema, the Lone Wolf is praised: “You are Lethal! You are Devastating! You are the knight who strikes the enemy’s heart . . . You are the David who cuts down the Goliath.” Strength and honor are conveyed to the Reader by evoking feelings related to the power of the weak against the strong.  

 

 

 

 

It seems worth commenting on the dearth of gruesome imagery in Inspire. Perhaps the publishers, aware of the double edged nature of exposure to violent images, were leery of their inclusion. Showing bloody images of ‘the other’ would trigger sympathetic feelings for the enemy. Showing bloody images of Muslims would trigger fear in the Reader.

Intuitionalism: Inspire uses prominent sheiks and others respected in the jihadi world to present justifications for terrorism through theories of revenge. It offers multiple instances of approval as in, “Like they kill, they will be killed” (I10, p.7)) and numerous other non-attributed ‘interpretations’ of the Koran. The quotes around ‘interpretations’ signify Inspire’s use of Koranic paraphrasing which is then taken further from the primary source meaning by interpretation. In this manner almost any viewpoint can be supported; any action justified. The Reader is not expected to be a Koranic scholar, therefore these claims of justified righteous violence are not questionable. They are presented as irrefutable facts. This notion of “I am closer to God and so know more than you. So I am telling you that you do not know,” promotes schema assimilation by increasing the cognitive dissonance of the Reader’s sense of ignorance about Islam.

       There are also quotes from Western scholars who support the idea that political elements may motivate to VR. As this view is not held, officially, by U.S. officials, it may come as a rare and welcome validation of a Reader’s feelings, supporting his confirmation bias.

Whatever lens(es) one uses to analyze the coercive power of Inspire, one always finds mechanisms of cognitive psychology at play. Each issue holds a great many schemata, triggers, and various cognitive elements that can have a large effect on the Reader’s world view and state of mind. To help organize this large amount of material we first look at the cognitive mechanisms as grouped by the symbolic DNA of Terrorism. 

The symbolic DNA of terrorism       

Rowland and Theye have built a framework to describe the motivations that lead to a state of radicalized to violence (RV) called the symbolic DNA of Terrorism. DNA stands for Denial, Negation, and Affirmation. By Denial they refer to “a sense that identity has been denied and the existence of the group is threatened”. This leads to seeking a new identity and a need to attack the Others who are to blame. The second component is a total Negation of the Other, dehumanizing them so that violence becomes transcendent. This quiets cognitive dissonance about the morality of killing. Rowland and Theye define Affirmation as a mythic narrative affirming a new/old identity that brings/restores a renewed sense of identity.  

From the perspective of those radicalized to violence, DNA “acts as a symbolic schema that legitimizes terrorism, transforming it into sacramental violence:” (Rowland, Theye) Within Inspire Denial refers to outside forces seeking to deny Muslims of our lands, culture, and religion, i.e. our basic identity. Negation is our total rejection of anyone who is not with us as being less than human, and Affirmation is our belief in the Caliphate that our jihad will bring to fruition.

Inspire’s Mechanisms, the DNA of Inspire.

We turn now to the ways in which Inspire brings the Reader to embrace its DNA. The DNA of Inspire, taken as a whole, allows for what Crenshaw has labeled ‘cognitive restructuring’ enabling the most “reprehensible conduct [to be] presented as honorable.” (Rowland)

Denial. One way that Inspire reinforces the idea that Islam and Muslims are under attack is with copious references (dozens in some issues) to the ‘War on Islam,’ and the current ‘Crusades’. Inspire portrays a world filled with hostile intent and uses confirmation bias to increase the Reader’s feeling that Islam is under attack. Acting as confirmation bias, this reinforces the Reader’s feeling of being under threat and repeatedly confirms the belief that all Muslims are currently being attacked. A long article by al-Bana (I2, p.23) detailing how Obama’s War on Terror is really the War on Islam is presented as fact. With no means or inclination to falsify al-Bana’s statements the Reader is able to incorporate them as Truth. Confirmation bias acts here to reinforce the feeling of Denial.

Negation. Negation refers to the demonization of ‘the other’ so that killing them is not considered murder. Hostile attribution is bolstered with lists of American ‘atrocities’ in most issues. Here are examples of how Inspire portrays American leaders (and all Americans, since they support the leaders) in the first issue: they kill and rape women, spill the blood of honest men, are greedy, keep Israelis in Palestine, steal oil in the Arabian Peninsula, murdered many in Vietnam, Japan, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Iraq, bombed innocent Bedouins, killed tens of children, and insult Mohammed. Inspire also teaches that Americans are weak, cowardly, live in a police state, hate Islam, torture prisoners, etc. In short, “America has turned into a nation of evil . . . is a cancer that needs to be removed.” (I1, p.17). The claims of atrocities are hard to falsify: many instances, though by no means all, are factual but presented with a one-sided viewpoint. In talking of how Inspire demonizes Americans one has to take into account the cultural and religious aspects of radicalized Muslim Readers and their aspiration to be ‘good Muslims’. Describing Americans as ‘disbelievers’ may not seem strong language unless you are aware of the schema surrounding this word within Muslim culture. Over 500 instances of ‘disbeliever’ occur in the Koran and they are linked to a long list of attributes and punishments. Partial lists will have to suffice of a) attributes: ungrateful, hypocrites, sinners, criminals, wicked helper of Satan, and b) consequences of being a disbeliever: shameful doom, humiliating torment, hell, destruction, drowning, manacles, pillory, and raging fire.

This dehumanization through hostile attribution, as well as stereotyping of the American ‘target’ prevents identification and reduces empathy, making killing a more acceptable action. The Other is painted as demonic and deserving of death.

Affirmation. Affirmation refers to the looking forward to a ‘new/old’ identity; an ideal world only achievable through violence against the other. Al-Qaeda’s stated main goal is “to reestablish the Islamic Caliphate through Jihad in the cause of Allah . . .” (I10, p.19) Rowland notes the influence of al-Qaeda’s narrative to build the belief that the ‘threat could be overcome by returning to the power and heroism present at the origin of Islam.’ The goal of “achieving the Islamic state’ is repeated in most issues. Its inevitability is bolstered by such irrefutable statements as “Allah is changing the Ummah’s state of affairs for the better in the near future.” (I8, p.8)

As the issues progress there is a shift from seeking martyrs to encouraging serial vigilantes. By issue #8 there are more and more references to and advice about lone jihad. Terrorism is repeatedly praised as a worthy ambition. In order to encourage social learning there are many stories of Lone Wolf actions made personal by the words of the martyrs. These ‘role models’ provide a virtual social learning experience.

A recognition of the fear of death enters the narrative and an easement to the resultant cognitive dissonance is offered: “Following simple instructions, you can carry out a lethal ambush. There is no retaliation to face, just place and vanish.” (I8, p.  ). The idea of ambush is justified by explaining ‘bayat,’ a tactic mentioned in the Koran. (I8, p.22) The Koran does contain this quote: “Fight and kill the disbelievers wherever you find them, take them captive, harass them, lie in wait and ambush them using every stratagem of war." (Qur'an:9:5) Any notion of cowardice associated with sneak attacks is erased by this call on the authority of the Koran. The idea of ambushing the enemy is a recurrent theme. “Following simple instructions, you can carry out a lethal ambush. There is no retaliation to face, just place and vanish.” (I10, p.3)    

Other Cognitive Mechanisms

The use of authority. Although argumentum ad homonym is not a valid logical argument, it is used over and over. The Reader’s assumed lack of expertise in Koranic matters, strategy and tactics, and arms knowledge is used to increase a feeling of inadequacy when held up against the writings of the ‘experts.’ This delegation to experts and to God, an example of Institutionalism, through the experts’ interpretations of Koran, serves to obviate the need for the Reader to check the facts.

Milgram and Zimbardo have experimentally demonstrated the power of authority to persuade. Perhaps knowing that an American Reader is not likely to be a Koranic scholar, Inspire repeatedly uses authoritative voices; a cognitive mechanism resulting in the Reader feeling less learned, less knowledgeable, and more open to listening what the authoritative voice has to say. Each issue has a section, often long, in which passages from the Koran and Hadith appear, and each is interpreted by an authority. In many instances the ‘meaning and intent’ of the Koran are presented without reference to specific Koranic verses. The word of the authority is considered enough.

Sometimes the authorities are American military, as “US soldiers in Iraq . . . committing suicide because they serve a dishonorable cause.” An interesting use of authority appears in Issue #8 which carries a quote from John Miller, former Asst. Deputy of National Intelligence. It elevates the importance of Lone Wolf actions without the need for bragging since the reference comes from an outside authority. “. . . using social media and the web to reach out to the lone wolves and to say you can be alone or you can  . . .  do something that's low-tech and low-cost but high yield . . .  if  here on U.S. soil, inevitably it was a mouse and a computer screen." The last sentence serves to counter cognitive dissonance raised by fears of incompetence. It says, in effect, you are not alone in turning to the internet for guidance; it has worked for others.

These voices of authority are employed to list injustices, ease cognitive dissonance in areas around death, killing, and the fear of capture. They also work to amplify the confirmation bias within the Reader.

Fused Identity. “Psychological scientist William B. Swann, Jr., of the University of Texas, came up with the concept of identity fusion.’(Menon) A strong identification with an ideology can overcome cognitive dissonance related to acts previously considered immoral. Inspire offers the Reader membership in an embracing global narrative justifying jihad. Case studies of Lone Wolf terrorists (Springer, Pantucci) have revealed the not surprising commonality of a feeling of isolation, sometimes along with an outward appearance of belonging to a circle of friends, or social/religious groups. The offer of inclusion appeals to Readers adrift in their morality and allegiance; a pre-packaged overall ideology. The inclusion of secret codes for communicating with the leaders of this global enterprise furthers this sense of membership.

Sacred values: The works of Atran, Alderdice, and Tetlock expose a critical mechanism in RV. The social and psychological mechanisms that lead to the radicalization of an individual can take many paths to the point of leading the terrorist to a state in which he/she can accept the simple explanation that any and all action, even killing of innocent civilians, is justified. In some instances the final justification is in the name of sacred belief. Primed by the mechanisms referred to above, the Reader is ready to accept the final step—the embracing of attitudes not based upon utilitarian strategies but rather on firmly fixed, metaphysical convictions. Being transcendental, these tenets are strongly resistant to change by logic or arguments about real-world concerns. The Reader finally attains a state freed from morality in which he/she can act as a proud agent of al-Qaeda’s global narrative.

The Effectiveness of Inspire 

We are unable to judge the effectiveness of Inspire, but there are numerous factual linkages between Lone Wolf terrorists and possession of issues of the magazine. Examples are given in Appendix A. The association, however, does not prove causality. Individual case studies, however, point to a strong influence. The younger brother of the Boston Marathon bombers of April, 2013 was not the first to state that the bombs used were produced by following the detailed plans found in Inspire. Ordinez and Gordon confirm this, saying Inspire “has reportedly been used or cited by multiple terrorism suspects in recent years as inspiration for their attempts to carry out attacks in the United States.” Further research into the influence and efficacy of the magazine would seem a valuable, although difficult, enterprise.        

            Inspire is a powerful tool for social learning. It is valuable for al-Qaeda because it brings their global narrative to all who take the minimal effort of clicking onto a web site. Rich with psychological mechanisms that aid in radicalization, it is an efficient tool for building a cadre of killers.

            Inspire is not alone. There are many jihadist publications, web sites, and forums that are read by thousands of Readers. It behooves us to pay attention.

 

Appendix A: Terrorists with known links to Inspire magazine.

 

• On April 15, 2013 Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26, and 19-year-old Dzhokhar Tsarnaev allegedly exploded 2 devices at the annual Boston Marathon. They had allegedly assembled at least four types of improvised explosives from plans they read in Inspire magazine.
• In March, 2103, three men in the United Kingdom pleaded guilty to terrorism charges related to attending terrorism training camps in Pakistan. The men allegedly were motivated by Inspire.
• On Nov. 29, 2012, two brothers from Florida, Raees Alam Qazi and Sheheryar Alam Qazi, were arrested and charged with plotting attacks in New York. Prosecutors noted that the pair had been motivated by Inspire magazine.
• On Oct. 17, 2012, Bangladeshi national Quazi Nafis was arrested as part of an FBI sting operation after he attempted to detonate a vehicle bomb outside New York's Federal Reserve Bank. Nafis reportedly was an avid reader of Inspire magazine.
• On Sept. 15, 2012, Adel Daoud, another avid Inspire reader, was arrested after he parked a Jeep Cherokee outside a Chicago bar and attempted to detonate the bomb he thought it contained. His was also an FBI sting operation.
• On April 25, 2012, four men were arrested in the British town of Luton and charged with plotting attacks against a British army base. The four were also charged with downloading and possessing six editions of Inspire magazine. They pleaded guilty March 1, 2013.
• July, 2011, PFC Jason Abdo was arrested trying to assemble a bomb from Inspire instructions. He intended to blow up a restaurant that was popular with soldiers from Fort Hood.
• November, 2011, Jose Pimental was arrested in Manhattan as he was constructing a bomb from Inspire instructions.
• November 2009, Maj. Nidal Hasan killed 13 people. A second soldier who was plotting an attack was found to have copies of Inspire.

 

 

 

 

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“U.S. Gift for Iraqis: More than 700 people killed in Iraq this year”

“U.S. Gift for Iraqis: More than 700 people killed in Iraq this year”

No. We didn’t write that headline. It’s what Iran’s abna said, and they’re churning 39,000 pageviews a day. Yes, it’s true that Iraq is in a horrible state. Yes, it’s true that the U.S. unleashed a period of terror the Iraqis are still reeling from. But abna’s putting the full blame on America for what’s going on today is misplaced. It certainly doesn’t admit to any Iranian influence in the madness of today’s Iraq.

On the other hand, there are lots and lots of people out there who feel exactly this way; that America caused all the pain Iraqis are feeling today. And come to think of it, there are an awful lot of people right here in the U.S. who feel that way.

The U.S. is demonized. People are frustrated, angry, and in pain. Throw is some justification from the myriad internet sources currently available. Why you don’t even need a personal trainer. The web will set you free. Free to calm the tensions in you born of powerlessness, resentment, and a sure knowledge that the West is out to destroy you and your way of life with its War on Terror. Free to follow the simple instructions in Inspire Magazine. Free to gain a sense of self-worth by joining the global jihad of al-Qaeda.

This isn’t Martin Luther Kings ‘free at last.’ This is the freedom only a terrorist can see. We can’t see it. Our brains don’t work that way. We just don’t live in the same perception space. And until we do get to understand terrorism we won’t be able to do a serious thing about it.  

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Lone Wolf in London

I don’t know if they read Issue #9 of al-Qaeda’s Inspire magazine, but they have done just what al-Qaeda asked.

He chose a military target. He evidently researched the target since he knew the man was a soldier, even though he was out of uniform. #9 is the same issues that proclaimed, without attribution, '' The mujahideen are proud to kill in the name of God. And that is exactly what God told us to do in the Qur'an”.

#9, like other issues, cognitive triggers filled the magazine. Cleverly chosen buttons that would help an already prejudiced person become radicalized to violence. Stirred up even to the point of accepting indiscriminate killing to change the things al-Qaeda assured the reader justified killing.

And there he proudly stood, waiting for the police, justifying murder as a noble act of revenge for all those of ‘his people’ killed by the British military.

Now the interrogations begin; the questioning and seeking of facts that will help in the quest to understand what so far we can’t predict. Did he read Inspire? Did he follow some of the dozens of mujahedeen forums and web sites? And so what if he did. Does it matter? Over a dozen terrorists had Inspire in their possession but so have hundreds, perhaps thousands, of others who didn’t kill.

We’ve got a lot to learn, and England's criminalizing of downloading Inspire (yeah, it's true) is not going to stop terrorism.

 

 

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Hunger strike in Guantanamo, the citadel of injustice and torture

Hunger strike in Guantanamo, the citadel of injustice and torture

The Obama administration’s simplistic explanation for the hunger strike by the Guantanamo prisoners, “to attract media attention”, doesn’t really do justice to the cause.

And the U.S. government’s forced feeding program is against medical ethical standards. It serves only to prolong the torture that moved the prisoners to choose to stop eating. British courts accept the right to starve oneself, but American courts have failed to do so. Most of the world disagrees with America on this issue.

The World Medical Association’s (WMA) Tokyo declaration states that “Where a prisoner refuses nourishment and is considered by the doctor as capable of forming an unimpaired and rational judgment concerning the consequences of such a voluntary refusal of nourishment, he or she shall not be fed artificially”. http://jme.bmj.com/content/29/4/243.full

Why choose hunger? It has been known to work. From Bobby Sands onward, the tactic has been used successfull, and this is a motivator. But that’s not all.

Guantanamo forces not guilty prisoners to view their plight as without hope. Living in isolation from the external world, except for sporadic visits from attorneys and the ever present functionaries of the facility, there is no ear to hear. It is a perfect situation to allow self-radicalization to occur. Prisoners may even seek to outdo one another in coming up with ideas of rebellion. The conditions they live in “result in elevated rates of depression, anxiety, and other emotional disturbances, as well as increased susceptibility to disease, heart attacks, and other serious medical conditions.” (PsySR) The torture and humiliation they have experienced has reduced their self-esteem. This resulted in a pervading feeling of powerlessness. They are suffering from traumatic stress disorder. When an idea like hunger strike appears it will be accepted without reason. Cut off from seeing any possible path to freedom, they see no other way out of their continued torturous existence.

So they seek to better their lives, i.e., end the torture, by any means possible, even if the method kills them. It’s a contradiction in logic, but they live in a contradictory universe in which their internally held truth (“my innocence”) is ignored by the external world. This is a powerful torture.

There have been many hunger strikes since Guantanamo’s first in 2005. Desperate acts will continue until this monument to America’s disregard for the rule of law, this citadel of injustice and torture, is closed.

Please act now and contact your representatives and tell them how you feel. It’s the least you can do.

Wanna do more? Contact Code Pink.

Iraq: who cares?

Iraq: who cares?
May 20, 2013 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

The Western papers and magazines speak of Syria. They speak of Sudan, Afghanistan, Sudan, Lebanon, and Nigeria. They show us pictures from Somalia and Kenya.

Where is Iraq?

Perhaps the American media are suffering from fear. Fear of admitting their own nations’ culpability in the madness that has engulfed Iraq. “Car bomb attacks kill dozens in Iraqi cities” (BBC News 5/20/13) makes the news cycle, but only as a momentary spectacle. Analyses that would help us, the citizens who elected the officials who decided to go to war in Iraq, understand and come to grips with the horrors we unleashed are not to be found in mainstream media any more.

“Any more.” The trail of devastation has gone on so long that we are calloused, no longer willing to look at the pain we caused; maybe even not buying the issue with Iraq’s troubles on the cover. The media are aware of our proclivities, and they have papers to sell and eyeballs to garner. And the politicians know this, as they contemplate the next way to continue to boost the economy of our powerful war machine.

Fault? Nah. It’s not a matter of blame. It’s just that some of us do face the truth every day, and wish against reality that everyone would feel the same way. Or, at least, some more…at least enough to call, write, and vote in ways that would change American foreign policy.

 

 

Commotion Wireless: uncontrolled free speech
May 20, 2013 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

 Imagine an internet of your own. A city-wide web of individuals not connected to the www. The distributed architecture means that Government agencies would have a hard time detecting its existence, much less shutting it down.

   In the name of providing “democratic activists around the globe [need] a secure and reliable platform to ensure their communications cannot be controlled or cut off by authoritarian regimes.” The local web will:

• Prevent hostile governments from surveilling, disrupting, or shutting down communications.
• Enhance security among democratic activists by enabling direct peer-to-peer communications.
• Implement open source and open tech solutions that facilitate continued adaptation, enhancement, and implementation of these technologies by democratic activists and programmers around the globe.

The Open Technology Institute, of the New America Foundation, is working on it now. They named it Commotion Wireless.

Who will be the first adopters? Remember Kevin Mitnick? Remember the early child pornography rings? If history predicts, then joining the “democratic activists” will be pornographers and criminals. Each technological advance holds potential—for whatever good and evil lies within us. ‘Commotion’ is probably an apt name for this next step in the evolution of communications.

Al-Qaeda forum silenced, for now, but not before it releases guidance Syrian fighters.

May 17, 2013 by Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

Al-Qaeda’s main internet voice has been silenced, again. An ‘enemy’ attack has succeeded in bringing Shumukh al-Islam down. As it was from May 12^th to the 13^th and then again from May 14^th (and so far until today) the site is not functioning. Shumukh al-Islam is the primary source of messages from al-Qaeda. (SITE)

This attack on the jihadist site comes just after it published, for members only, a comprehensive plan for al-Qaeda (embodied by al-Nusrah front) in Syria. The site is password protected. Cole Bunzel’s translation, on Jihadica, provides insight into their goals, thinking, and planning.

The document takes a pessimistic tone. They believe the West, Crusader, i.e. the U.S., and Israel, as well as Iran) are prepared to seal Syria off in the attempt to crush the al-Qaeda fighters. In response to this threat they are calling for a rapid influx of fighters, before the borders are closed to them. The Syria conflict is seen as a protracted affair requiring much patience on the part of al-Nusrah and its allies.

It rejects attacks on Israel at this time because of the danger of blowback that will add more allies to the anti-jihadist effort. It also takes the time to lambast Al-Jazeera as lying criminals who seek to brainwash viewers so that they will oppose the struggle in Syria.

Chilling in its organization and detail, the document illustrates an intelligent attempt at orchestrating the efforts of al-Nusrah and its allies in Syria. Its repeated calls for more fighters to cross the border quickly should not be ignored by Syria’s neighbors.

 

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NYC Subway Drones: Bloomberg says, “We’ll get those rats.”

NYC Subway Drones: Bloomberg says, “We’ll get those rats.”
By Bruce Wallace, 121Contact

The Mayor’s spokeswoman said, “There is absolutely no danger to passengers or municipal workers. These micro-drones are programmed not to target anything larger that a rat. The dosage in the aerial-launched hypodermic is too small to kill anyone but a small child anyway.”

Oversight: the IRS and Targeted Killing

It's 'What a World' time. Some folks are freaking out over the IRS' unwarranted scrutiny of right wing organizations. The media are stirring up the populace. The need for oversight of those who choose targets to investigate is plain to see. While this is a wasteful misuse of public funds it poses no danger to organizations unless they are breaking the law.

But nobody seems to care about President Obama's uncontrolled listing of people to kill. This is a license to murder. Where's the media?. Where's the outcry? Have you bothered to let your representatives know how you feel about the lack of due process in targeted killing?